Nobel Institute suspects 'espionage' after surge in Machado betting odds

The Nobel Institute in Norway said espionage was 'highly likely' behind an apparent leak that sent betting odds for Venezuelan leader Maria Corina Machado soaring hours before her Peace Prize win

The Nobel Institute has said that espionage was “highly likely” behind a potential leak preceding the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize announcement to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, reported news agency AFP.

 

Institute director Kristian Berg Harpviken told Norway’s TV2 that the sudden spike in betting odds for Machado before the announcement suggested “outside interference".

 

According to Polymarket data, Machado’s odds of winning jumped from 3.75 per cent to nearly 73 per cent overnight on Thursday, just hours before the Nobel Committee’s official declaration in Oslo. No media outlet or analyst had previously named her among the favourites, the report said.

 

 

Nobel institute to tighten security

 

“It’s highly likely it’s espionage,” Harpviken told TV2, adding that the institute would investigate the matter and strengthen security measures.

 

He said espionage “could make it appear as if someone on the inside deliberately leaked information", but considered that scenario “improbable".

 

“It’s no secret that the Nobel Institute is subject to espionage,” he added. “It is of interest to both state and non-state actors, for political or economic motives — and this has been going on for decades.”

 

Committee denies internal leaks

 

Nobel committee chair Jorgen Watne Frydnes dismissed suggestions of deliberate leaks. “I don’t think there have ever been any leaks in the entire history of the prize. I can’t imagine that’s the case,” said Frydnes.

 

Only a small group of officials know the winner before the announcement. While speculation about leaks has surfaced in past years, no confirmed breach has been documented in modern times.

 

Machado wins Nobel Peace Prize

 

Maria Corina Machado, barred from contesting Venezuela’s 2024 presidential election, received the Peace Prize “for her tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela and for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy".

 

The decision drew a sharp reaction from former US President Donald Trump, who claimed the award was “politics over peace". Trump later said that Machado had “accepted the prize in my honour".

 

Machado, who has faced repeated detentions and political persecution, said she accepted the award on behalf of “all those who continue to fight for freedom and justice in my country".