Early reports show a sharp rise in online transactions this festival season. GST rationalisation has lowered taxes on many items, possibly boosting household spending
India’s GDP growth for April–June reached 7.8%, far above the MPC’s earlier 6.5% estimate. This may prompt an upward revision in the full-year growth projection
US tariffs could weigh on exports. The duration and severity of these measures remain uncertain, with negotiations still underway
The MPC expects inflation to average 3.1% this year. But inflation could climb back to 4.9% by early 2026–27, leaving little room for rate cuts
Fiscal moves—tax relief and GST cuts—already support demand. Cutting policy rates may add little, given weak transmission into lending rates
Maintaining the status quo allows the MPC to watch how demand, inflation, and fiscal trends evolve before making fresh policy moves