Demand for MGNREGA work fell 35.3% YoY in October—one of the steepest mid-year declines
This returns dependency to pre-pandemic levels, signalling a potential structural shift
While a spending cap and weather played a role, the sustained, pan-India decline points beyond short-term causes. It aligns with a drop in rural unemployment to 4.4%
Robust rural consumption growth (7.7% in Q2) and stronger real wages in farm/non-farm work indicate improving livelihoods, reducing reliance on the safety net
As rural opportunities improve, urban unemployment has ticked up. This may reflect a gradual, healthy movement of labor seeking more productive, non-farm work in cities
Policy must now sustain this momentum: boost rural infrastructure, credit access, and skilling to deepen non-farm employment and diversify rural livelihoods
MGNREGA’s role should evolve. It must remain a crucial lean-season safety net, not a source of dependency, while broader job creation pulls people from agriculture