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El Nino is a recurring climate pattern marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The phenomenon influences weather conditions worldwide and can affect rainfall, temperatures, and agricultural output. In India, El Nino is closely watched for its impact on the monsoon, crop production, inflation, and economic activity. Get the latest news, updates, analysis, and expert insights on El Nino at Business Standard.
According to a recent India Meteorological Department (IMD) release, India recorded 45.6 mm of rainfall by June 20 against the seasonal normal of 84.4 mm, resulting in a 46 per cent shortfall.
The developing El Niño, and the likelihood it will reach strong intensity later this year, is expected to raise temperatures and suppress rainfall in Southeast Asia
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The strongest El Niño signal appears in the rural economy; market outcomes are often shaped by more powerful forces
As El Nino threatens cane output and more sugar is diverted to ethanol, India may have less sugar available for exports, raising questions over domestic supplies, fuel targets and export earnings
Agricultural experts say resilient traditional rice varieties such as Kala Namak can help farmers withstand delayed monsoons and weather-related stress during the kharif season
Share of instruments that faced such action rose to almost a five-year high in May
With rainfall turning weaker and El Nino risks rising, India could face pressure on farm output, food inflation, rural demand and overall economic growth in FY27
Majji Satyam has been watching the sky since May. The 52-year-old farmer from JR Puram village in Andhra Pradesh's Srikakulam district has five acres, two borewells, and a lifetime of growing paddy the way his father did raise seedlings in a nursery, transplant them into flooded fields and keep the water standing until harvest. This kharif season, backed by years of training from the family-owned trust Dr Reddy's Foundation, one of the beneficiaries of CSR funds of pharma major Dr Reddy's Laboratories, he is trying something different. "Last year, rains had arrived in May itself. This year it has not yet come. I have heard that the rainfall will be less due to El Nino," Satyam told PTI. "So I have decided to try DSR." DSR Direct Seeded Rice skips the nursery entirely. Seeds go straight into the field. No transplantation, no waterlogging, no standing puddles. For a farmer staring down a lean monsoon, it is an attractive proposition. Satyam is not alone. Across Srikakulam and .
The climate pattern is historically associated with dryness in South Asia, and US scientists expect it to be one of the strongest on record
Agriculture Secretary Atish Chandra on Wednesday said the ministry is awaiting the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) forecast by the end of this month to get a clearer picture on the El Nino timeline before deciding on concrete steps to mitigate the likely impact on kharif crops. "The prediction on when El Nino will set in is still to come. By the end of this month, IMD will come out with the forecast, and then the picture will be clearer. We will then be in the thick of the kharif sowing season and will know how it is going to pan out," Chandra told PTI in an interview. While there have been broad forecasts of El Nino setting in around November, IMD is seeking greater certainty before firming up its assessment. A key variable being tracked is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) a climate pattern characterised by irregular sea surface temperature oscillations in the Indian Ocean. After remaining positive in May, the IOD has turned neutral in June. "Whether it will remain neutral
As the Centre warns of a severe El Niño impact in 12 states, microfinance lenders are intensifying vigilance to protect collection gains
The impact of El Nino weather phenomenon, linked with a weaker monsoon in India, is likely to be "relatively severe" in 12 states, including Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, in the Kharif season, according to the agriculture ministry, which on Tuesday directed coordinated action through district-level machinery in the most vulnerable regions. Other states likely to be impacted by El Nino include Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Odisha, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Maharashtra. "In 9-10 states where the impact of El Nino may be relatively higher, coordinated meetings should be organised with District Magistrates, Agriculture Departments, Krishi Vigyan Kendras (KVKs) and other extension systems of the identified districts," Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, who chaired the weekly review meeting on Kharif 2026 preparations, said. The minister also stressed the need for advance contingency planning in rain-deficient districts, while also pushing f
Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan on Saturday assured that enough fertilizer stocks were available in the country, and also stated that the government had made preparations to handle the possible El Nino impact. Urea and di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) would continue to be available at subsidised rates despite concerns over supplies amid the West Asia crisis, he said. India has adequate fertiliser stocks for the ongoing kharif season and the government is taking all necessary steps to ensure sufficient availability for the rabi crop cycle as well, he said. "Our government has decided that farmers will continue to get urea and DAP at affordable rates. The government is bearing the burden of increased prices," Chouhan told reporters after the conclusion of the five-day BRICS agriculture meeting in Indore. "This will put an additional burden of thousands of crores of rupees on the exchequer, but we are prepared to bear it in the interest of farmers," he added. "Our govern
El Nino conditions are currently present over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and are expected to strengthen further during the southwest monsoon season, the IMD said on Friday. The atmosphere has responded to the warming sea surface temperatures, and the coupled ocean-atmosphere system now exhibits characteristics consistent with El Nino conditions, it said. "Forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) indicate a further strengthening of El Nino conditions during the southwest monsoon season," the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. The last time El Nino conditions developed was in 2023. Since 2000, these conditions have emerged in 2002, 2009 and 2015.
A powerful El Niño in 1997 killed at least 30,000 people and caused an estimated $100 billion in damage worldwide
The interim allocation comes ahead of the formal launch of VB-G RAM G on July 1, 2026, across the country
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